The UK Energy Market Brief

Gas sell-off eases prompt prices but tight nuclear & storage deficits cap downside

Energy prices are a bit lower than they were last week, mainly because the US and Iran have started talking peace, which has calmed fears about gas supply being cut off in the Middle East. Prices could stay roughly where they are over the next couple of weeks, but any breakdown in those talks — or less wind than forecast — could push them back up fairly quickly.

Gas-led sell-off trims prompt, but tight supply stack keeps curve firm

Energy prices are higher than usual right now, mainly because several UK power stations are temporarily shut down at the same time as supplies of gas from the Middle East have been disrupted by conflict — though prices dipped slightly this week as tensions paused. Over the next week or two prices are likely to stay elevated and could jump again quickly if the Middle East situation worsens or the wind stays light.

UK power softens post-heatwave but gas stay elevated on Middle East/storage fears

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because fighting in the Middle East has disrupted gas shipments to Europe, making gas much more expensive — and since gas-fired power stations set the price of electricity most of the time in the UK, electricity costs have gone up too. Prices may ease a little over the next couple of weeks if the conflict calms down, but they are likely to stay well above normal until Europe can refill its gas reserves ahead of winter.

UK power stays elevated on Middle East LNG risk & tight storage; near-term bearish day

Energy prices are significantly higher than normal right now, mainly because fighting in the Middle East has reduced the amount of gas tankers reaching Europe, pushing up the cost of gas that powers much of UK electricity generation. We expect prices to stay high and possibly rise further over the next couple of weeks, especially if the situation overseas does not improve and as we head towards the colder winter months.

UK power surges to ~£133/MWh as Middle East LNG crisis drives gas +44% in July

Energy prices are significantly higher than normal right now, mainly because fighting in the Middle East has disrupted gas shipments to Europe, pushing up the cost of the gas that powers many UK electricity plants. We expect prices to stay high over the next couple of weeks unless tensions ease or the weather turns cooler and windier.

UK power sharply elevated on surging gas, heatwave demand & grid cable curbs

Energy prices are significantly higher than usual right now, mainly because fighting in the Middle East has reduced the amount of gas being shipped to Europe by sea, pushing gas prices — and therefore electricity prices — well above normal summer levels. Expect prices to stay high or climb further over the next one to two weeks, with some risk of a brief dip if the weather turns cooler or a deal is reached in the Middle East.

UK power near recent highs — Hormuz LNG blockade and heatwave push gas sharply higher

Energy prices are significantly higher than normal right now, mainly because fighting in the Middle East has stopped gas tanker ships from reaching Europe, pushing up the cost of gas that powers much of the UK's electricity. We expect prices to stay high or push even higher over the next week or two unless there is a peace deal or more wind arrives to reduce how much gas power stations need to run.

UK power sharply above seasonal norm — Middle East LNG shock dominates

Energy prices are significantly higher than usual right now, mainly because fighting in the Middle East has disrupted the ships that carry gas to Europe, making gas — and therefore electricity — much more expensive. We expect prices to stay high and remain jumpy over the next couple of weeks, with any news about the conflict likely to push them up or down quickly.

UK power surges to ~£136/MWh spot as Iran-US war premium drives gas to 3-month high

Energy prices are significantly higher than normal right now, mainly because fighting between the US and Iran in the Middle East is threatening gas supplies to Europe, pushing gas — and therefore electricity — prices sharply upward. We expect prices to stay elevated and potentially rise further over the next week or two unless the conflict de-escalates or more gas ships arrive in Europe.

UK power stays sharply elevated; Middle East LNG risk and UK nuclear outages dominate

Energy prices are notably higher than usual right now, mainly because fighting in the Middle East is disrupting the ships that carry gas to Europe, pushing up the cost of gas and therefore electricity across the UK. We expect prices to stay high — and possibly rise further — over the next one to two weeks unless the situation in the Gulf calms down or more wind arrives.

UK power firmly bid on surging gas, ME supply risk & third summer heatwave

Energy prices in the UK are significantly higher than usual right now, mainly because fighting in the Middle East has made it harder and more expensive for Europe to get hold of the gas it uses to generate electricity, and a third heatwave this summer is making everyone use more power at the same time. We expect prices to remain high and possibly go higher over the next couple of weeks unless the conflict eases or the hot weather breaks.

UK power near 30-day highs on Mideast LNG risk & heatwave demand

Energy prices are noticeably higher than normal right now, mainly because fighting in the Middle East is threatening the ships that bring gas to the UK, and a summer heatwave is pushing up the amount of electricity people are using. Prices are likely to stay elevated over the next couple of weeks unless the fighting eases or the hot weather breaks.

UK power sharply elevated on Middle East LNG risk, low wind & nuclear outages

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because tensions in the Middle East are threatening the supply of gas shipped in by sea from the Gulf region, and several UK power stations are currently offline for repairs while there has been less wind than normal. Prices are likely to stay high or push even higher over the next week or two unless the situation in the Middle East calms down or wind picks up significantly.

UK power near 30-day highs; Middle East LNG risk and tight EU storage drive gains

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because fighting in the Middle East has disrupted gas supplies that Europe relies on to keep the lights on, and those higher gas costs are feeding directly into electricity bills. We expect prices to stay elevated — and possibly rise further — over the next week or two unless there is a sudden easing of tensions or a big jump in wind power across the UK.

UK power near 3-month highs as Hormuz LNG fears and nuclear outages bite

Energy prices are noticeably higher than normal right now, mainly because fighting in the Middle East is threatening the ships that carry gas to Europe, and several UK and French power stations are shut for repairs at the same time. We expect prices to stay high or push even higher over the next week or two unless the shipping situation calms down or more wind arrives.

UK power near 30-day high as Hormuz blockade re-escalation lifts gas sharply

Energy prices are noticeably higher than they have been for most of the past month, mainly because tensions in the Middle East have flared up again and are threatening to disrupt gas shipments that Europe relies on — pushing gas prices up across the continent, which in turn pushes up electricity prices here in the UK. Prices could stay elevated or rise a little further over the next week or two, though they may ease back slightly if the situation calms down or if the spell of warm, sunny weather reduces heating demand.

UK power firms on gas rally & low wind; spot ~£102/MWh, Win-26 near 30-day high

Energy prices are higher than usual right now, mainly because gas prices have been climbing for several days in a row and there has been very little wind or renewable power on the grid — so power stations burning gas have had to pick up the slack. Over the next week or two, prices are likely to stay elevated unless the wind picks up or global tensions ease.

UK power elevated; 3rd summer margin alert as heatwave kills wind & France cuts nuclear

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because it has been very hot and still across the UK — wind turbines are barely turning and France has had to cut back its power stations due to the heat, so there is less electricity available just when more people are using fans and air conditioning. We expect prices to stay high or edge even higher over the next week or so until the weather breaks, which forecasters think could happen around 17 July.

UK power sharply elevated; Middle East LNG risk & storage deficit keep curve firm

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because fighting near the Persian Gulf has made it harder for ships carrying gas to reach Europe, pushing up the cost of gas that power stations need to run. We expect prices to stay high or even rise further over the next couple of weeks unless the conflict eases or the wind picks up significantly across the UK.

Sharp geopolitical spike: UK power/gas surge 8-9% w/w on Iran escalation & heatwave

Energy prices are notably higher than usual right now, mainly because fighting has flared up again in the Middle East, which worries markets that gas shipments could be disrupted, and a Europe-wide heatwave is pushing up electricity use for cooling at the same time. We expect prices to stay elevated and jumpy over the next couple of weeks — they could ease quickly if tensions cool, but could rise further if the conflict or the hot weather drags on.

UK power surges on Middle East re-escalation, storage deficit & NW Europe heatwave

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because fighting has flared up again in the Middle East, which threatens the ships that carry gas to Europe, and Europe already has much less gas stored than it normally would at this time of year. Expect prices to stay elevated — and possibly rise further — over the next week or two unless the international situation calms down.

Gas surges 5%+ on Hormuz attack & NW Europe heatwave; UK spot at £104.73

Energy prices are noticeably higher than normal right now, mainly because fighting in the Middle East has disrupted the ships that carry gas to Europe, and a hot spell across Europe means more electricity is being used for cooling — leaving gas stores lower than usual for this time of year. Prices are likely to stay elevated over the next one to two weeks unless the weather cools quickly or the shipping situation calms down.

UK power bullish: heatwave + nuclear outages + low EU storage lift curve

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because the UK and much of Europe are in the grip of a third heatwave this summer, several power stations are broken or shut for repairs, and Europe's gas stores are unusually low going into winter. We expect prices to stay elevated or edge slightly higher over the next week or two unless the heatwave breaks and wind picks up.

UK power elevated post-heatwave; French nuclear & tight EU storage cap near-term upside

Energy prices are higher than usual right now, mainly because a big heatwave across Europe last week meant power stations — including nuclear ones in France — couldn't run at full speed, and there is less gas stored across Europe than normal due to disruption in the Middle East. Prices should ease a little as the hot weather passes, but could stay above normal for the next couple of weeks, especially if another warm spell arrives early next week as forecasters expect.

UK power nudging higher: gas rebound, low wind & tight EU storage dominate

Energy prices are a little higher than they were a month ago, mainly because gas has become more expensive again — caused by Middle East tensions, low gas stocks across Europe, and a summer heatwave pushing up demand for air conditioning on the continent. Over the next week or two, prices are likely to stay firm or edge slightly higher unless winds pick up significantly or gas supply concerns ease.

UK power sharply above weekly norm; Norwegian supply cut & low EU storage drive gains

Energy prices are noticeably higher than normal right now, mainly because a gas supply cut from Norway has reduced the amount of gas reaching the UK and Europe, and gas storage tanks across Europe are unusually low for this time of year. We expect prices to stay elevated for at least the next week or two, with some risk of further rises if European storage doesn't rebuild quickly or if tensions in the Middle East flare up again.

UK power ~10% above week-mean; gas tightness, Euro heat & nuclear outages dominate

Energy prices are noticeably higher than they have been over the past month, mainly because gas supplies from Norway have been cut for maintenance, European countries are using a lot of gas to cool their buildings during a heatwave, and several UK power stations are offline for repairs. Prices are likely to stay elevated or creep a little higher over the next one to two weeks unless the Norwegian gas flows return early or a change in the weather brings more wind to UK shores.

UK power softens on Iran diplomacy; heatwave demand & thin storage cap downside

Energy prices are higher than they were a year ago, mainly because of the conflict involving Iran, which has disrupted the world's gas supply routes and pushed up the price of gas that power stations need to run. Over the next week or two, prices may ease slightly if peace talks continue to progress, but are unlikely to fall back to normal anytime soon because Europe's gas stores are very low and another spell of hot weather is expected.

UK power sharply elevated on gas/wind squeeze; high-pressure suppresses renewables

Energy prices are noticeably higher than normal right now, mainly because there is less wind than usual across the UK and Europe (high pressure is blocking it) while gas supplies from Norway have tightened and Middle East tensions have kept gas expensive. We expect prices to stay above normal for at least the next week or two unless the wind picks up significantly or the gas supply situation eases.

UK power surges ~25% above monthly norms on heatwave, French nuclear cuts & gas risk

Energy prices are significantly higher than normal right now — mainly because a record-breaking heatwave across Europe has pushed up electricity demand sharply, while French power stations have had to cut output because rivers are too hot to cool them, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East have kept gas supplies uncertain. Prices may ease a little if a ceasefire holds and the heat breaks, but expect them to stay well above normal for at least the next one to two weeks.

UK power easing on Hormuz progress but geopolitical risk & low EU storage cap upside

Energy prices are a little higher than they have been on average this month, mainly because a war in the Middle East earlier this year made it harder to ship gas to Europe, pushing prices up — but over the last few days prices have started to fall as peace talks have made some progress. Over the next couple of weeks prices could keep drifting down if those talks continue to go well, but they could jump back up quickly if the situation in the Middle East gets worse again.

UK power easing on geopolitical relief & summer demand lull; spot well below week avg

Energy prices are lower than they have been recently, mainly because a ceasefire deal between the US and Iran has calmed fears about gas supplies being cut off from the Middle East, and the warm summer weather means people are using less energy to heat their homes. Prices could start to creep back up as autumn approaches and heating demand returns, so if you are renewing a contract soon, now looks like a reasonable time to lock in.

UK power easing as Iran ceasefire drains risk premium; storage deficit caps downside

Energy prices have been coming down over the past few weeks, mainly because talks between the US and Iran have reduced fears that gas supplies from the Middle East would be cut off, making gas cheaper across Europe. Prices are likely to keep drifting a little lower in the short term, but don't expect big falls — Europe's gas stores are unusually low for this time of year, which could push prices back up as winter approaches.

UK power easing on US-Iran relief & heatwave demand drop; storage deficit caps downside

Energy prices are a bit lower than they have been this past week, mainly because a deal between the US and Iran has calmed fears about gas supplies being cut off in the Middle East, and the hot summer weather across Europe means people are not burning gas to heat their homes. Prices could ease a little further over the next couple of weeks, but they are unlikely to fall much more because Europe's gas storage tanks are unusually empty heading into winter and that keeps a floor under prices.

UK power sharply above weekly mean as heatwave demand eclipses easing gas prices

Energy prices are noticeably higher than they have been over the past month, mainly because Europe is in the middle of a heatwave — hot weather means more people use air conditioning, which pushes up demand for electricity at the same time as gas prices are falling due to a peace agreement in the Middle East. We expect prices to drift lower over the next couple of weeks as the hot spell passes and cheaper gas continues to flow into Europe.

Heatwave lifts spot 35% above monthly norm; gas geopolitical premium fading fast

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because the UK and Europe are going through a heatwave — people and businesses are using a lot more electricity to cool down, and that pushes prices up sharply in the short term. Over the next week or two, prices are likely to ease back as the hot spell passes and the situation in the Middle East continues to calm down, though bills from July onwards will still be higher than they have been this spring.

UK power softens as US-Iran truce eases gas risk premium; storage deficit caps downside

Energy prices are a little lower than they have been over the past few weeks, mainly because fighting in the Middle East has eased and ships carrying gas are starting to move through a key waterway again, bringing prices down from their recent spike. However, gas storage across Europe is unusually low for this time of year, so prices are unlikely to fall much further and could rise again quickly if tensions flare up or the weather turns colder.

Spot power elevated on heat & low wind; gas curve easing sharply on US-Iran deal

Energy prices are higher than usual right now — the UK is in the middle of an extreme heatwave with very little wind, so power stations are having to work extra hard to keep the lights and air conditioning on. Over the next couple of weeks, prices should start to ease as the heatwave passes and because the main reason gas prices spiked earlier this year — a conflict in the Middle East that blocked key shipping routes — now looks like it is being resolved.

Spot spikes on Iran/LNG risk premium; gas eases 9% w/w as Hormuz deal takes hold

Energy prices are noticeably higher than normal right now — mainly because a conflict in the Middle East earlier this year disrupted gas supplies to Europe, and that pushed up the cost of making electricity in the UK. The good news is that a peace deal has been signed in the last few days and gas prices have already started falling, so we expect prices to ease back over the next couple of weeks as more gas reaches Europe.

Gas prices ease sharply on US-Iran deal; power follows but residual premium lingers

Energy prices have dropped notably over the past week, mostly because an agreement between the US and Iran means big tankers carrying gas from the Middle East are starting to move again — which should bring more gas to Europe and the UK. We expect prices to stay lower than they were a few weeks ago, but a lot depends on whether that peace deal holds, so there is still a chance things could reverse if tensions flare back up.

UK power easing on US-Iran deal hopes; structural LNG tightness & Jul cap rise cap downside

Energy prices have been coming down a little over the past week or two, mainly because the US and Iran reached a peace deal that could allow more gas tanker ships to travel through a key waterway in the Middle East, easing worries about gas running short. However, bills are still set to rise for most households on 1 July, and prices could climb again if the peace deal falls apart or European countries struggle to fill up their gas stores before winter.

UK power easing sharply on Iran deal hopes, but hot weather and Hammerfest outage cap downside

Energy prices have been falling this week — mainly because a peace deal between the US and Iran looks close, which could mean more gas ships are able to sail through the Middle East again and bring more gas to Europe. However, a hot spell arriving across the UK and Europe right now is pushing up demand for electricity (for cooling), and one major gas plant in Norway has broken down, so prices are unlikely to fall much further in the next week or two — expect them to stay roughly where they are, or drift slightly lower if the peace deal holds.

UK power sliding on US-Iran ceasefire; spot £101 but still 30% above week mean

Energy prices are falling right now, mainly because the US and Iran have agreed a peace deal that should reopen a key shipping route for gas supplies — meaning more gas will reach Europe soon, pushing prices down. We expect prices to keep easing over the next week or two, though they could stabilise if the deal hits delays or the weather turns colder.

UK power elevated on Norwegian gas supply disruption & Hormuz LNG risk

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because a breakdown at a major gas facility in Norway has cut the amount of gas flowing to the UK, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East are keeping global gas supplies tight. We expect prices to stay above normal for at least the next week or two unless that Norwegian supply comes back online or there is a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East.

UK power firm on Hormuz LNG squeeze & Norwegian outages; Q3 cap jumps 13%

Energy prices are higher than normal right now, mainly because gas supplies from Norway have been disrupted and a conflict in the Middle East has reduced the amount of gas shipped by tanker to Europe, pushing up the cost of the fuel that generates most of our electricity. Prices are likely to stay elevated over the next couple of weeks unless either the Norwegian supply comes back on or the situation in the Middle East improves significantly.

UK power firmly bullish: Norwegian supply shock & Hormuz LNG risk keep curve elevated

Energy prices are higher than usual right now, mainly because a broken piece of equipment in Norway has reduced the gas flowing to the UK, and ongoing trouble in the Middle East is making it harder to get gas delivered by ship from elsewhere. We expect prices to stay elevated over the next week or two unless the Norwegian repairs complete sooner than expected or the situation in the Middle East calms down.

UK power spot well below weekly mean; gas supply crunch & LNG disruption cap downside

Energy prices are noticeably lower today than they have been over the past month, mainly because it is mild summer weather and we are using less electricity than usual — but the main thing pushing prices back up is that a gas pipeline from Norway has broken down and the Middle East conflict is making it harder to ship gas here by ship. We expect prices to stay a bit unsettled over the next week or two, with the risk that they climb if the pipeline stays offline or the situation in the Middle East does not improve.

Gas supply shock lifts near-term UK power; spot softer on wind surge

Energy prices are higher than normal right now, mainly because a breakdown at a major Norwegian gas facility has reduced the amount of gas flowing into the UK, pushing up prices at a time when the weather has also been cooler than usual. Prices are likely to stay elevated over the next week or two unless the Norwegian supply problem is fixed or the weather warms up quickly.

Spot spike ~17% above weekly mean as Iran risk premium lingers; curve easing on peace-talk hopes

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because fighting in the Middle East has disrupted global gas supplies and made it more expensive for Europe to buy the gas it needs — and the UK relies heavily on gas to make electricity. Over the next week or two prices may ease slightly if peace talks progress further, but they are likely to stay well above where they were at the start of the year.

Gas-led softening continues; ME peace hopes vs. heatwave demand cut near-term pressure

Energy prices have been falling a little over the past two days, mainly because there are signs that the conflict in the Middle East — which has been pushing up the cost of gas around the world since late February — may be closer to ending. However, prices are still well above normal and with Ofgem due to announce a likely increase in household bills by 27 May, and a hot Bank Holiday weekend arriving with little wind, the near-term picture remains uncertain.

Mild pullback on Iran diplomacy, but Norwegian outage & LNG risk keep curve firm

Energy prices are noticeably higher than normal right now, mainly because a war in the Middle East has cut off a big chunk of the world's gas supply for the past three months, and a major gas facility in Norway is also shut down this week. We expect prices to stay high or go a little higher over the next two weeks unless the Middle East conflict moves closer to a peace deal.

UK power bearish near-term on warm weather/renewables; forward curve elevated on Iran/LNG risk

Energy prices are higher than normal right now, mainly because a conflict in the Middle East has disrupted the supply of gas that the UK and Europe depend on, pushing up the cost of gas and therefore electricity across the board. Warm weather and plenty of solar and wind this week are helping to keep today's prices a little lower, but until the situation overseas calms down we expect prices to stay well above where they were earlier this year.

UK power sharply elevated; Hormuz LNG disruption and cold May drive near-term spike

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because a conflict in the Middle East has blocked ships carrying gas, meaning less gas is available for Europe and the UK to buy — and it has also been colder than normal across Europe, so people have been using more heating. Prices should stay high for the next week or two, but may ease a little later in May as the weather warms up and winds pick up.

Near-term prices elevated on Middle East LNG risk; longer-dated curve softening on carbon & wind

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because a conflict in the Middle East has blocked a key shipping route used to carry gas around the world, meaning less gas is available and prices have shot up. Expect prices to stay high or go even higher over the next week or two unless there is a breakthrough in peace talks or the shipping route reopens.

UK power elevated on Hormuz LNG squeeze, cold NW Europe & gas at 119p/therm

Energy prices are noticeably higher than normal right now, mainly because a conflict in the Middle East has blocked a major shipping lane that carries a big chunk of the world's gas supplies, pushing gas prices sharply higher across Europe — and when gas is expensive, electricity gets more expensive too. Over the next couple of weeks, prices are unlikely to fall much unless the shipping lane reopens or the weather warms up across Europe.

UK power sharply above monthly norms as gas surges on Hormuz LNG disruption

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because a conflict in the Middle East has blocked a key shipping route used to move gas around the world, making gas more expensive and pushing electricity prices up with it. We expect prices to stay elevated over the next couple of weeks unless there is a breakthrough in the conflict or the weather turns significantly windier.

UK power stays elevated as cold snap, tight gas supply & Hormuz risk persist

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because the UK is going through an unusually cold spell for May, gas from Norway has been cut for repairs, and a conflict in the Middle East is blocking a key global shipping route for gas tankers. Prices should ease a little next week if the weather warms up as forecast, but the bigger supply concerns are unlikely to go away quickly.

UK power spikes 39% above 30d mean as Hormuz LNG crunch and cold Europe drive gas surge

Energy prices right now are noticeably higher than they have been over the past month, mainly because a conflict in the Middle East has blocked a major shipping route that carries a big chunk of the world's gas supply, pushing gas and electricity prices up sharply. Over the next week or two, prices could stay high or go even higher if the conflict continues — though they may ease a little later in May as the weather in the UK and Europe warms up.

UK power surging ~10% above 30-day norm on Hormuz LNG squeeze & continental cold snap

Energy prices are noticeably higher than normal right now — mainly because a conflict in the Middle East is blocking a key shipping route for gas, which means less gas is getting to Europe just when countries need to top up their reserves before next winter. Prices are likely to stay elevated or drift higher over the next couple of weeks unless a peace deal is reached or the weather warms up significantly across Europe.

UK power drifts bearish near-term as Iran risk premium deflates, but Winter-26 stays firm