The UK Energy Market Brief

UK power spot well below weekly mean; gas supply crunch & LNG disruption cap downside

Energy prices are noticeably lower today than they have been over the past month, mainly because it is mild summer weather and we are using less electricity than usual — but the main thing pushing prices back up is that a gas pipeline from Norway has broken down and the Middle East conflict is making it harder to ship gas here by ship. We expect prices to stay a bit unsettled over the next week or two, with the risk that they climb if the pipeline stays offline or the situation in the Middle East does not improve.

Gas supply shock lifts near-term UK power; spot softer on wind surge

Energy prices are higher than normal right now, mainly because a breakdown at a major Norwegian gas facility has reduced the amount of gas flowing into the UK, pushing up prices at a time when the weather has also been cooler than usual. Prices are likely to stay elevated over the next week or two unless the Norwegian supply problem is fixed or the weather warms up quickly.

Spot spike ~17% above weekly mean as Iran risk premium lingers; curve easing on peace-talk hopes

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because fighting in the Middle East has disrupted global gas supplies and made it more expensive for Europe to buy the gas it needs — and the UK relies heavily on gas to make electricity. Over the next week or two prices may ease slightly if peace talks progress further, but they are likely to stay well above where they were at the start of the year.

Gas-led softening continues; ME peace hopes vs. heatwave demand cut near-term pressure

Energy prices have been falling a little over the past two days, mainly because there are signs that the conflict in the Middle East — which has been pushing up the cost of gas around the world since late February — may be closer to ending. However, prices are still well above normal and with Ofgem due to announce a likely increase in household bills by 27 May, and a hot Bank Holiday weekend arriving with little wind, the near-term picture remains uncertain.

Mild pullback on Iran diplomacy, but Norwegian outage & LNG risk keep curve firm

Energy prices are noticeably higher than normal right now, mainly because a war in the Middle East has cut off a big chunk of the world's gas supply for the past three months, and a major gas facility in Norway is also shut down this week. We expect prices to stay high or go a little higher over the next two weeks unless the Middle East conflict moves closer to a peace deal.

UK power bearish near-term on warm weather/renewables; forward curve elevated on Iran/LNG risk

Energy prices are higher than normal right now, mainly because a conflict in the Middle East has disrupted the supply of gas that the UK and Europe depend on, pushing up the cost of gas and therefore electricity across the board. Warm weather and plenty of solar and wind this week are helping to keep today's prices a little lower, but until the situation overseas calms down we expect prices to stay well above where they were earlier this year.

UK power sharply elevated; Hormuz LNG disruption and cold May drive near-term spike

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because a conflict in the Middle East has blocked ships carrying gas, meaning less gas is available for Europe and the UK to buy — and it has also been colder than normal across Europe, so people have been using more heating. Prices should stay high for the next week or two, but may ease a little later in May as the weather warms up and winds pick up.

Near-term prices elevated on Middle East LNG risk; longer-dated curve softening on carbon & wind

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because a conflict in the Middle East has blocked a key shipping route used to carry gas around the world, meaning less gas is available and prices have shot up. Expect prices to stay high or go even higher over the next week or two unless there is a breakthrough in peace talks or the shipping route reopens.

UK power elevated on Hormuz LNG squeeze, cold NW Europe & gas at 119p/therm

Energy prices are noticeably higher than normal right now, mainly because a conflict in the Middle East has blocked a major shipping lane that carries a big chunk of the world's gas supplies, pushing gas prices sharply higher across Europe — and when gas is expensive, electricity gets more expensive too. Over the next couple of weeks, prices are unlikely to fall much unless the shipping lane reopens or the weather warms up across Europe.

UK power sharply above monthly norms as gas surges on Hormuz LNG disruption

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because a conflict in the Middle East has blocked a key shipping route used to move gas around the world, making gas more expensive and pushing electricity prices up with it. We expect prices to stay elevated over the next couple of weeks unless there is a breakthrough in the conflict or the weather turns significantly windier.

UK power stays elevated as cold snap, tight gas supply & Hormuz risk persist

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because the UK is going through an unusually cold spell for May, gas from Norway has been cut for repairs, and a conflict in the Middle East is blocking a key global shipping route for gas tankers. Prices should ease a little next week if the weather warms up as forecast, but the bigger supply concerns are unlikely to go away quickly.

UK power spikes 39% above 30d mean as Hormuz LNG crunch and cold Europe drive gas surge

Energy prices right now are noticeably higher than they have been over the past month, mainly because a conflict in the Middle East has blocked a major shipping route that carries a big chunk of the world's gas supply, pushing gas and electricity prices up sharply. Over the next week or two, prices could stay high or go even higher if the conflict continues — though they may ease a little later in May as the weather in the UK and Europe warms up.

UK power surging ~10% above 30-day norm on Hormuz LNG squeeze & continental cold snap

Energy prices are noticeably higher than normal right now — mainly because a conflict in the Middle East is blocking a key shipping route for gas, which means less gas is getting to Europe just when countries need to top up their reserves before next winter. Prices are likely to stay elevated or drift higher over the next couple of weeks unless a peace deal is reached or the weather warms up significantly across Europe.

UK power drifts bearish near-term as Iran risk premium deflates, but Winter-26 stays firm

Bearish tilt eases as Hormuz risks linger; below-norm wind & nuclear stack cap downside

UK power eases with gas retreat, but Hormuz/LNG risks keep curve supported

Gas and electricity prices are currently higher than normal, mainly because of ongoing conflict in the Middle East that has disrupted global gas supplies and pushed up the cost of importing the fuel that fires most of Britain's power stations. Prices have dipped slightly in the last couple of days on hopes of a peace deal, but are likely to remain elevated and volatile over the coming week unless the Strait of Hormuz is formally reopened and Qatari LNG supply resumes.

Bullish near-term as Hormuz tension & cold weather lift short-end; curve diverges

Near-term bearish relief on Hormuz pause; nuclear/gas outages cap downside

Bullish: Hormuz risk + nuclear outages + low wind keep UK power elevated near-term

UK power bullish near-term: gas rebounds on Hormuz tensions, Norwegian cuts loom

Gas-supply squeeze offsets Hormuz relief; near-curve remains bid

UK power mildly bullish near-term: nuclear outages & Norwegian supply gaps offset Iran relief

Bullish near-term: wind lull + nuclear outages + Norwegian supply tightening underpin prompt

Prompt spike on wind lull/nuclear outages; forward curve mildly supported by gas/geopolitics

Gas-led forward rally stalls spot; Iran/Hormuz risk premium intact into Win-26

Bearish prompt, bullish forward: Hormuz risk, low storage & nuclear outages dominate

Bearish prompt on warm anticyclone; forwards stay firm on Hormuz/supply risk

Bullish near-term: low wind, nuclear outages & Hormuz LNG risk push UK power above £91/MWh

UK power bullish near-term; Hormuz risk vs. nuclear outages offset mild wind softness

Geopolitical gas risk bid vs. warm-weather/renewables supply overhang — cautiously bullish near-term

Geopolitical LNG risk vs warm-weather demand pull keeps UK power rangebound near £91

UK power rallies sharply on Hormuz risk, low wind & nuclear outages — bullish near-term