Sunday, 12 July 2026
UK power sharply elevated; Middle East LNG risk & storage deficit keep curve firm
Prices rising sharply2027 wholesale: £84.48/MWh
Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because fighting near the Persian Gulf has made it harder for ships carrying gas to reach Europe, pushing up the cost of gas that power stations need to run. We expect prices to stay high or even rise further over the next couple of weeks unless the conflict eases or the wind picks up significantly across the UK.
What's affecting prices
- •Middle East conflict making it harder for gas ships to reach Europe through the Strait of Hormuz
- •European gas storage almost 11 percentage points below normal for this time of year
- •Norwegian gas pipeline flows briefly fell, tightening near-term supply
- •Above-average temperatures across the UK boosting electricity demand
- •Wind expected to recover above normal levels over the weekend, which may ease prices slightly
Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.