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Monday, 18 May 2026

Near-term prices elevated on Middle East LNG risk; longer-dated curve softening on carbon & wind

Prices rising sharplyCal-27 wholesale: £81.48/MWh

Energy prices are noticeably higher than usual right now, mainly because a conflict in the Middle East has blocked a key shipping route used to carry gas around the world, meaning less gas is available and prices have shot up. Expect prices to stay high or go even higher over the next week or two unless there is a breakthrough in peace talks or the shipping route reopens.

What's affecting prices

  • Middle East conflict blocking a key gas shipping route, reducing global supply
  • Europe racing to refill gas storage before next winter with less LNG available
  • Unusually cold May temperatures across Europe keeping heating demand high
  • US gas export volumes lower than usual due to maintenance at export terminals
  • Longer-dated prices being pulled down by falling European carbon permit costs and improving wind forecasts

Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.

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