Saturday, 11 July 2026
Sharp geopolitical spike: UK power/gas surge 8-9% w/w on Iran escalation & heatwave
Prices rising sharply2027 wholesale: £84.48/MWh
Energy prices are notably higher than usual right now, mainly because fighting has flared up again in the Middle East, which worries markets that gas shipments could be disrupted, and a Europe-wide heatwave is pushing up electricity use for cooling at the same time. We expect prices to stay elevated and jumpy over the next couple of weeks — they could ease quickly if tensions cool, but could rise further if the conflict or the hot weather drags on.
What's affecting prices
- •Middle East conflict flaring up again — risk that gas ships can't get through the Strait of Hormuz
- •Heatwave across the UK and Europe pushing up demand for electricity to run fans and air conditioning
- •Europe's gas storage tanks are about 10% less full than they were this time last year
- •UK grid operator issued a supply-shortage warning on 8 July — very unusual in summer
- •Limits placed on how much electricity the UK can import from Europe, reducing a key safety valve
Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.