Thursday, 21 May 2026
Mild pullback on Iran diplomacy, but Norwegian outage & LNG risk keep curve firm
Prices rising sharplyCal-27 wholesale: £81.48/MWh
Energy prices are noticeably higher than normal right now, mainly because a war in the Middle East has cut off a big chunk of the world's gas supply for the past three months, and a major gas facility in Norway is also shut down this week. We expect prices to stay high or go a little higher over the next two weeks unless the Middle East conflict moves closer to a peace deal.
What's affecting prices
- •Middle East conflict blocking around one-fifth of the world's LNG supply for 12+ weeks
- •Norway's biggest gas facilities shut for planned maintenance this week, cutting supply to Europe
- •Australia LNG strike risk — workers may walk out from 27 May if talks fail
- •European gas storage very low at around 36%, well behind last year's levels
- •Warm UK weather and strong solar/wind cutting demand and spot prices today
Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.