Tuesday, 12 May 2026
UK power drifts bearish near-term as Iran risk premium deflates, but Winter-26 stays firm
Prices may ease slightlyCal-27 wholesale: £79.60/MWh
What's affecting prices
- •US-Iran ceasefire uncertainty: Strait of Hormuz ~20% of global LNG still restricted, supporting winter-curve premium
- •Forward gas curve repricing: NBP Win-26 at 113.60p/th, seasonal contracts down avg 2.2% last week on de-escalation hopes
- •Low wind / tight near-term generation: spot bouncing intraday despite sub-week-mean settlement, BSUoS at £13.74/MWh elevated
- •UK ETS carbon near cycle-high (~£51.77/t late April), supply-reduction trajectory providing structural floor under power
- •Q3-26 price cap announcement due 27 May; EDF forecasting +£225 jump to £1,866/yr from July, reinforcing forward buying interest
Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.