Wednesday, 20 May 2026
UK power bearish near-term on warm weather/renewables; forward curve elevated on Iran/LNG risk
Prices edging higherCal-27 wholesale: £81.48/MWh
Energy prices are higher than normal right now, mainly because a conflict in the Middle East has disrupted the supply of gas that the UK and Europe depend on, pushing up the cost of gas and therefore electricity across the board. Warm weather and plenty of solar and wind this week are helping to keep today's prices a little lower, but until the situation overseas calms down we expect prices to stay well above where they were earlier this year.
What's affecting prices
- •Middle East conflict cutting global gas and LNG supplies — prices well above normal since late February
- •Major Norwegian gas maintenance outage (Kollsnes/Troll) removing large volumes this week
- •Possible Australian LNG workers' strike from 27 May adding further supply risk
- •Warm UK weather and strong solar/wind output reducing demand and capping today's prices
- •Ongoing risk that European gas storage refill is slower than normal heading into winter
Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.