Saturday, 20 June 2026
UK power easing on US-Iran deal hopes; structural LNG tightness & Jul cap rise cap downside
Prices may ease slightlyCal-27 wholesale: £81.48/MWh
Energy prices have been coming down a little over the past week or two, mainly because the US and Iran reached a peace deal that could allow more gas tanker ships to travel through a key waterway in the Middle East, easing worries about gas running short. However, bills are still set to rise for most households on 1 July, and prices could climb again if the peace deal falls apart or European countries struggle to fill up their gas stores before winter.
What's affecting prices
- •US-Iran peace deal raising hopes that gas ships can travel through the Middle East again
- •European gas stores are dangerously low — less than 40% full, the lowest in years
- •Europe has just banned short-term imports of Russian pipeline gas (from 17 June)
- •Hot weather forecast for Europe next week will push gas use back up
- •Household energy bills rising 13% on 1 July, partly reflecting higher gas costs
Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.