Tuesday, 4 August 2026
UK power eases with gas as Iran tensions cool, but storage deficit keeps curve elevated
Prices may ease slightly2027 wholesale: £84.48/MWh
Energy prices are higher than normal right now, mainly because gas supplies from the Middle East were badly disrupted through July — though prices dipped slightly this week after news that a conflict in the region may be moving toward talks. We expect prices to stay well above their usual summer levels for the next couple of weeks, as Europe has less gas stored than it should at this point in the year, and any fresh tensions could push prices back up quickly.
What's affecting prices
- •Middle East gas supply fears easing slightly after Iran conflict pause and Qatar LNG restart
- •European gas storage about 55% full — well below where it needs to be before winter
- •Gas prices still more than a third higher than a year ago — supporting elevated electricity costs
- •Warm UK summer weather reducing heating demand but not enough to pull prices down sharply
- •Grid balancing costs risk rising — NESO warning on metering issues adding to system costs
Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.