Sunday, 10 May 2026
UK power eases with gas retreat, but Hormuz/LNG risks keep curve supported
Prices may ease slightlyCal-27 wholesale: £81.60/MWh
Gas and electricity prices are currently higher than normal, mainly because of ongoing conflict in the Middle East that has disrupted global gas supplies and pushed up the cost of importing the fuel that fires most of Britain's power stations. Prices have dipped slightly in the last couple of days on hopes of a peace deal, but are likely to remain elevated and volatile over the coming week unless the Strait of Hormuz is formally reopened and Qatari LNG supply resumes.
What's affecting prices
- •Middle East conflict: Strait of Hormuz near-closure disrupting ~20% of global LNG supply, NBP up >50% since war began
- •Qatar Energy force majeure on LNG extended to mid-June, tightening Atlantic Basin cargo availability
- •Below-seasonal UK wind generation and colder temperatures this week lifting near-term demand
- •Partial de-escalation signals (US-Iran ceasefire talks, Trump Hormuz mediation) capping upside and pulling spot gas off two-week highs
- •Structural forward pressure: Hinkley Point C delays, North Sea gas decline, and Capacity Market tightness supporting Cal-28 premium expectations
Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.