Saturday, 9 May 2026
Bullish near-term as Hormuz tension & cold weather lift short-end; curve diverges
Prices edging higherCal-27 wholesale: £81.60/MWh
What's affecting prices
- •Strait of Hormuz tensions & Qatar LNG force majeure (to mid-June) keeping near-term gas elevated ~112p/therm
- •Met Office: below-normal temps & low wind from NW quadrant through mid-May week, suppressing renewable output
- •EUA (EU carbon) at ~€75/t — modest intraday softness but +4.7% over past month, underpinning gas-fired generation costs
- •Government confirmed no zonal pricing reform (REMA), removing a major structural uncertainty from forward curve
- •Q3 2026 Ofgem cap forecasts revised up to ~£1,850 (E.ON/EDF/BG), reflecting geopolitical risk premium in near-term wholesale
Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.