Wednesday, 6 May 2026
UK power bullish near-term: gas rebounds on Hormuz tensions, Norwegian cuts loom
Prices rising sharplyCal-27 wholesale: £81.60/MWh
What's affecting prices
- •Strait of Hormuz closure (~1/5 of global LNG) reignited after fresh US-Iran exchanges near Fujairah
- •Norwegian gas maintenance accelerating to ~150 mcm/day offline by end-May, tightening pipeline supply
- •Met Office: UK temps below seasonal average, unsettled/low-pressure pattern through mid-May — demand support
- •GB net importer via interconnectors (~7.85 GW imports); wind at ~8.2 GW (27%) providing partial price offset
- •Retail price cap forecasts rising sharply to ~£1,850/yr in July 2026, confirming wholesale pass-through risk
Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.