Tuesday, 5 May 2026
Gas-supply squeeze offsets Hormuz relief; near-curve remains bid
Prices edging higherCal-27 wholesale: £81.60/MWh
What's affecting prices
- •Norwegian supply squeeze: SAGE offline 6 May (-57 mcm/d), Bacton Shell offline 9-13 May
- •Strait of Hormuz still constraining ~20% of global LNG; diplomatic progress fragile
- •July 2026 Ofgem price cap widely forecast to jump ~13% to ~£1,850/yr (E.ON, EDF, British Gas)
- •OPEC+ raising output from May 2026, pulling oil/LNG spot lower — mild bearish cross-commodity offset
- •NBP gas still ~42% above year-ago levels despite 30-day ~10% decline; structural floor elevated
Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.