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Saturday, 2 May 2026

Prompt spike on wind lull/nuclear outages; forward curve mildly supported by gas/geopolitics

Prices edging higherCal-27 wholesale: £81.60/MWh

What's affecting prices

  • Sharp wind drop through bank holiday weekend pushing day-ahead above £100/MWh and lifting CCGT dispatch
  • Torness 27-day planned outage from 1 May plus upcoming Heysham 1&2 and Sizewell B outages mid-May
  • NBP prompt ~110–116p/therm underpinned by Strait of Hormuz LNG disruption (~20% global supply constrained)
  • Norwegian supply squeeze: SAGE pipeline offline 6 May (-57 mcm/day), Bacton Shell offline 9–13 May
  • Met Office expects below-seasonal temperatures early next week, lifting heating demand just as supply tightens

Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.

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