Friday, 1 May 2026
Gas-led forward rally stalls spot; Iran/Hormuz risk premium intact into Win-26
Prices rising sharplyCal-27 wholesale: £79.09/MWh
What's affecting prices
- •Strait of Hormuz blockade constraining ~20% of global LNG supply; US-Iran talks collapsed
- •Front-curve gas (May-26 ~116p/therm, Jun-26 ~116p/therm) surging while Cal-29 barely moved — signal of near-term supply risk not structural shift
- •Multiple UK nuclear outages (Heysham 1-1 planned 137-day, Heysham 1-2 and 2-7 unplanned) keeping CCGT despatch elevated and supporting power prices
- •Day-ahead spot depressed by high spring renewables output (negative prices intraday), creating spot-forward bifurcation
- •Retail price cap pressure building: E.ON/EDF forecasting July cap ~£1,850/yr, up from £1,641 — wholesale forward rally feeding through
Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.