Bullish near-term: low wind, nuclear outages & Hormuz LNG risk push UK power above £91/MWh

What's affecting prices

• •Strait of Hormuz near-closure disrupting ~20% of global LNG supply; US-Iran talks stalled, Brent at $106.60/bbl
• •UK wind severely depressed (5.6 GW last week) with high-pressure anticyclone forecast to persist through early May
• •Nuclear fleet constrained: Heysham 1-2, Heysham 2-7 unplanned outages + Torness planned work; Sizewell B outage stack from early May
• •Norwegian pipeline flows curtailed (Vesterled maintenance, Easington Langeled outage from early May); only one LNG cargo (30 Apr) in next fortnight
• •UK ETS carbon firmed to £50.47/tonne on confirmation power-sector carbon tax removal from Apr-28, partially offsetting near-term gas cost