Sunday, 26 April 2026
Geopolitical gas risk bid vs. warm-weather/renewables supply overhang — cautiously bullish near-term
Prices edging higherCal-27 wholesale: £79.09/MWh
What's affecting prices
- •Strait of Hormuz disruption (~20% of global LNG) sustaining geopolitical risk premium in NBP and TTF forward gas
- •UK nuclear constrained: Heysham 1-1 (130-day planned outage from 8 Apr), Heysham 1-2 unplanned, Torness-2 offline — tightening system margins and lifting peak spreads
- •Record Q1-2026 UK wind output (29.2 TWh) and above-seasonal solar capping renewables-rich periods and pressuring baseload
- •EU aggregate gas storage only ~30.7% full; NBP Win-26 at 109.41p/therm reflects structural refill anxiety ahead of next winter
- •UK ETS Dec-26 eased to £47.61/tonne (23 Apr) — modest bearish influence on carbon-embedded power costs vs. EUA divergence
Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.