Saturday, 25 April 2026
Geopolitical LNG risk vs warm-weather demand pull keeps UK power rangebound near £91
Prices broadly stableCal-27 wholesale: £79.09/MWh
What's affecting prices
- •US naval blockade of Iranian ports (est. 14 Apr) keeps geopolitical risk premium in near-curve gas; LNG flows through Strait of Hormuz (~1/5 of global supply) remain at risk
- •UK temperatures ~5°C above seasonal norm suppressing gas-for-power demand; European gas demand fell ~380 GWh/day mid-April
- •National Gas confirmed UK summer storage sufficient; British gas could be exported to mainland Europe despite Hormuz disruption
- •Nuclear fleet running below capacity — unplanned outages at Heysham 1 & 2 (~1 GW lost) provide modest floor to power prices
- •UK wind capacity now record-level (23,880 MW peak set 25 Mar 2026); solar seasonal ramp further displacing gas-fired generation on prompt
Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.