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Friday, 24 April 2026

UK power rallies sharply on Hormuz risk, low wind & nuclear outages — bullish near-term

Prices rising sharplyCal-27 wholesale: £79.09/MWh

What's affecting prices

  • Strait of Hormuz escalation: Iranian attacks on commercial vessels & fragile US-Iran ceasefire keeping LNG risk premium elevated
  • Sub-seasonal UK wind (~7 GW forecast) lifting gas-for-power demand ~2 mcm/day
  • Nuclear: Heysham 2 return delayed to 27 Apr; Torness planned outage commenced 23 Apr
  • Norwegian gas supply partially recovering (Langeled +6 mcm/day post-Aasta Hansteen), but Vesterled maintenance continues into early May
  • UK ETS carbon (Dec-26) diverging lower (-£1.52 to £47.61/t), capping some upside on prompt power

Wholesale pricing based on ICE forward settlements; non-commodity charges from NESO, LCCC, Ofgem and DNO publications. Indicative only — not financial advice.

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